There are a bunch of closers floating around right now. Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Madson, Heath Bell, and Francisco “I Can Whip Any Old Man” Rodriguez lead the pack, though Frank Francisco, Brad Lidge, Matt Capps, Jonathan Broxton, Kerry Wood, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Cordero are all out there, too. After the top four, they’re an intriguing vat of potential, age, injury, and mixed performances. But they’re mostly viable.
On one hand, it’s increasingly easy to argue that closer is the most overrated position in baseball. And maybe it is. After all, these guys throw about 60 innings per year in a game where your number five starter will throw more than double that amount. And the only reason the save isn’t the most overrated stat in the game is because there’s no one left who values it. (Not counting Rolaids, that is.) It can’t be overrated when no one really cares. A good situational lefty probably faces as many high stress moments as a top closer does. And the belief that you need a top closer to win has taken a mighty blow the past few years, starting off with the Phillies coming up 2 wins shy of a second championship in the midst of Brad Lidge having perhaps the worst season any closer has ever had. And the Cardinals and Rangers duked it out until the 11th hour, each team milking bullpens teetering between mediocre and awful.
(Side note: Tony La Russa reinvented baseball again this year with his bullpen use. Anyone who has coached youth tournament baseball will know what I mean…get a staff of hurlers, none really expected to give you more than a few innings, and keep rolling new guys out there, one after another, getting outs one at a time…)
But here’s the thing: while closer may be a position that’s no more valuable than your number four starter, it’s still better to have a really good one than it is to have a really crummy one. (See? La Russa isn’t the only smart guy around…) And with that background, I say Madson is the best one out there. The suspicion that he didn’t have the … the… whatever… to close now seems ludicrous. The guy has shined in numerous high tension moments in every recent postseason and did so as closer this season in his first real opportunity. At 31, he’s as old as Papelbon, and older than Rodriguez, but has better stuff than either. Sure, Pap lights it up a couple miles an hour better than Madson, but Madson combines that heat with an absolutely preposterous changeup. Check out the SABR-esque stats on swings and misses if you don’t believe me. (Yeah, yeah, strikeouts are fascist, but the name of the game is making batters miss, or mostly miss..). Rodriguez loses a couple MPH every year and doesn’t strike me as a great clubhouse guy. (Though he is willing to strike other, older people, and is happy whining about his role in the middle of a stretch run.) Madson’s free and easy motion suggests he can continue to avoid the DL, and the fact that his offspeed stuff is his out pitch suggests Father Time will have to work harder and longer to cut him down. Papelbon, on the other hand, has relied less and less on his splitter and more and more on the heat. Father Time smiles knowingly at that kind of trend.
Coupled with the fact that the Phillies’ bullpen is suddenly very thin and very young suggests Madson will be very rich, very soon. And in my world, “Mad Dog” is the top dog anyway.